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Posts by: Jason Cozens

Glint Special Report: Mario Innecco – “I’ve caught the Bank of England red handed, fudging the inflation data”

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Special Report Bank Of England

The financial markets and macroeconomics analyst reveals shocking evidence to Glint Founder and CEO, Jason Cozens that the UK’s central bank is manipulating data to make inflation look lower than it is.

Mario has been using the Bank of England’s inflation calculator for the last few years and has found it a useful tool to bring home the point that under a sound money system the currency maintains its value and there is virtually no inflation.

The Bank of England (BOE) inflation calculator goes as far back as 1209. “In my YouTube channel(3) I have focused on the period from 1821 to 1914, which is the period after the Restriction Period (1797 to 1821) which was when the Bank of England suspended the gold standard due to the Napoleonic wars”, Mario tells me.

And Mario knows the financial and monetary system. He’s spent over 30 years in the city dealing with everything from commodities and FX to equities, interest rates and government bonds. 60,000 have subscribed to his YouTube channel, that he runs under the name ‘maneco64’, to watch the informative 2,600 videos that he has posted and that have racked up over 18m views.

From 1821 to 1914, Britain went back on the gold standard and according to the BOE/IC inflation averaged -0.1% per annum and one only needed £0.95 in 1914 to buy the same basket of goods that cost £1 in 1821. “So for almost 100 years when Britannia ruled the waves the pound actually gained in purchasing power”.

“Up until June last year, which was the last time I referred to the BOE/IC I also checked the inflation rate from 1914 to 2020 and found that it averaged 4.6% per annum during that period and that one needed £118 in 2020 to purchase an equivalent basket of goods worth £1 in 1914!”

“I had also looked at the period from 1997 to 2020 as 1997 was when the Bank of England was granted independence by the Labour government and as a result given a 2% inflation target. In that 23-year period, the BOE/IC showed an average of 2.7% inflation per annum which clearly showed the Old Lady had missed its target”.

So when Mario did a recent report for his YouTube channel on the CPI he again referred to the BOE/IC and to his astonishment all the data that he had reported last year since 1914 had been dramatically changed to show much lower inflation.

“The 1914 to 2020 period now shows an average inflation per annum of 4.2% and one needing £78.53 in 2020 instead of £118 to purchase the equivalent of £1 worth of 1914 goods”.

The most shocking change for Mario was for the period (1997 to 2020) since the Bank of England was ‘granted independence’, (something we don’t think the bank really has as the Chancellor could at any time overrule the Governor of the Bank of England and the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee).

“Instead of an average annual rate of 2.7% the BOE/IC now shows a much lower late of 1.9% which is actually under the 2% target!”

We leave it to you the reader to make up your mind about the Bank of England’s intention in appearing to revise history. Mario’s take is that along with the government they are likely to now try to make inflation look lower than it actually is.

Mario also thinks it’s probable that government or central bank officials might try and wriggle their way out of this and attempt a cover up when challenged. “Their excuse will be that they, with the number crunchers at the ONS, have found a “better” way to calculate inflation”.

Foot note:

Section 19 of the 1998 Act said:
19 Reserve powers.
(1)The Treasury, after consultation with the Governor of the Bank, may by order give the Bank directions with respect to monetary policy if they are satisfied that the directions are required in the public interest and by extreme economic circumstances.
(2)An order under this section may include such consequential modifications of the provisions of this Part relating to the Monetary Policy Committee as the Treasury think fit.

(3) https://www.youtube.com/c/maneco64

Around the Campfire: First Quarter update from Glint’s CEO

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Campfire Jason Cozens Update

Amid all the gloom that mires the world right now I can at least report that Glint has had a wonderfully successful first quarter.

Our friends at Incrementum, who publish the unmissable In Gold We Trust report (the next one is promised for 24 May) tell us that the gold price in nine major currencies has gone up by an average of 7.2% as of the end of March – by 6% in US Dollars. 9.1% in Pounds Sterling and 12% in Japanese Yen. The drivers for the higher price are obvious – rampant inflation in the US, the UK, the EU and growing fears of a serious sovereign debt default (by perhaps Russia, which would put that of Sri Lanka’s this week in the shadows) and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have added enormously to the uncertainty of the short-term outlook.

I won’t bring to your attention some of the more extreme price forecasts or wilder speculations. Suffice to say that cooler analysts from Goldman Sachs and other banks have been updating their price forecasts – Goldman has recently forecast $2,500 per ounce over the next few months.

But it’s not just this evidence that gold retains its attraction as a ‘safe haven’ – Glint’s model of using gold-as-money is clearly attracting wider interest. We now have more than 100,000 registered users. That figure is growing by 10% a month right now. Glint clients have increased their gold holdings by almost 30% in the last 12 months. And our service to clients is trusted – we have a score of 4.6 on Trustpilot; our current App Store Connect rating is 4.6 in the UK and 4.8 in the US; and our Google My Business rating is 4 in the US and 4.3 in the UK.

It’s also notable that you appear to be enjoying this, your weekly Glint Newsletter, where we see a regular open rate of around 40%, which is almost unheard of for a Fintech, where most newsletters achieve around a 23% open rate. So, thank you all for your continued support right here!

But perhaps the biggest endorsement of our work has come from the major precious metals producer, Sibanye-Stillwater, which has decided to invest significantly in Glint. Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater says: “This partnership with Glint provides Sibanye-Stillwater with the ability to support new end markets for gold on an innovative, digital and highly regulated platform, backed by physical gold”.

We’re spreading our wings and it’s all thanks to you, our very special friend. Wherever you happen to live, know that your continued support is vital for our success. And remember – Gold is security. Glint its key.

My personal thanks and best wishes,

Jason Cozens, founder and CEO.

Around the Campfire: History is important

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The Spanish-born but American-raised philosopher George Santayana wrote in 1905 that “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.

It’s only 33 years since the Berlin Wall came down, marking the end of the Cold War – but now we are in another Cold War, or maybe an extension of the previous one which perhaps never ended. The old Cold War was horrible, for everyone.

Not least because it meant living with the constant anxiety that it might deliberately or accidentally turn into a Hot War, with nuclear weapons destroying the world.

The fragility of the ordered life we all took for granted has now been laid bare – in the course of little more than one week. I’m not the only one to be giving my children more hugs than usual; the million and more Ukrainians who have fled their country are all hugging their little ones more tightly than ever.

It’s not for me to express fear when Ukrainians who are facing Cruise missiles, bombs, and bullets are showing remarkable courage and determination. Yet, given the apparent determination of President Putin to double-down on his invasion of Ukraine, anxiety is inevitable.

What will this war mean for our daily lives? The travel industry, rocked by Covid-19, will again be hit as airlines are banned in a tit-for-tat fashion; record-high energy prices will climb still higher; fracking for gas and nuclear energy will be back on the agenda; there will be more government spending on the military; the economic impact will mean even more money printing by governments; inflation at a high level will be with us for years. With luck that won’t spill over into hyperinflation, which is defined as prices rising by 50% each month.

I fervently hope that this latest Cold War remains in deep freeze. The alternative is too ghastly to contemplate.

Stay safe!

Jason

Around the Campfire: Too much punch

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William Chesney Martin was chairman of the US Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, between 1951 and 1970. In October 1955, he gave a speech to the New York group of the Investment Bankers Association of America.

In that speech, Martin reminded us about the danger of inflation: “there are some who contend that a little inflation – a creeping inflation – is necessary and desirable in promoting our goal of maximum employment”. That idea was a fallacy: “inflation seems to be putting money into our pockets when it is in fact robbing the saver, the pensioner, the retired workman, the aged – those least able to defend themselves”.

He concluded by saying that the Fed, after a recent interest rate rise, “is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up”.

It’s a metaphor that central bankers in the major economies seem to have forgotten. Today the punch bowl is not just full but overflowing.

Trillions of US Dollars have been pumped into the global money supply in the past 18 months. The US fiscal deficit – the difference between government spending and the revenues it gets through taxes – is currently more than $2.5 trillion (£1.8 trillion). That’s about 10% lower than in 2020 but triple that of 2019. In July, thanks to rising inflation and growing debt, the federal government paid $10 billion more in interest than in July 2020. Somehow the US government will have to square this circle – and it won’t be pretty.

The US government’s aim has been to maintain high employment levels – and let the risks of inflation go hang.

But we don’t know any longer – if we ever did – how labour markets are really behaving. We scour reports from the media, banks, governments, to try to figure out whether our economies are running too hot (threatening inflation) or too cold (threatening a recession). But they all disagree.

So we have zero certainty about the level of risk facing financial markets. With the US apparently little interested in acting as democracy’s policeman, the financial and monetary risks will become wider and deeper. Will the US defend the Dollar as the world’s international reserve currency? Fifty years since President Nixon finally removed the Dollar’s gold backing it feels to me that the world is going through seismic shifts – a boat without a rudder headed into a tornado.

Founding Glint – which allows anyone to use gold as everyday currency – seems to me to be increasingly prescient. As we say here at Glint: Gold is security. Glint its key.

Till next time,

Jason

Around the Campfire: Get a deposit together

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I’ve recently been shedding a few tears for Generation Rent as I watch the staggering rise in house prices. Generation Rent comprises those young adults (roughly aged between 18 and 40) who, unless they are lucky enough to have some source of wealth, have been priced out of the housing market yet are shelling out a big stack of their earnings on rent. Accumulating enough to put down the necessary deposit – which mortgage lenders regard as your investment in the property, how much you are willing to risk – can take years. Especially if you save in cash, given that bank interest rates are so low.

Put a little away every now and then. And after a few years you may have – still not enough, as house price rises are currently roaring ahead, while the purchasing power of fiat (paper) money continues to fall, thanks to inflation. Would it be better to start saving in gold? The gold price can and does go up and down so it’s not risk-free, but it’s worth considering gold as a savings asset.

Whether that cash stowed away will be enough to put down as a deposit depends on many factors – not least being the price you have in mind for the home you want to buy, and how you save.

House prices have been steaming ahead, up by 10% in May in the UK, following 9.6% in April. They’re pretty hot almost wherever you look. The following chart shows how house prices have risen in major markets, up to the end of June this year.

 

In the UK, where I live, the typical deposit a first-time buyer needs to put down now averages nearly £59,000 ($82,000), about £12,000 ($16,000) more for a deposit than they would have done a year ago, according to Halifax. The calculations for first-time buyers in the US are more complicated but a 20% deposit avoids having to pay primary mortgage insurance (PMI). PMI premiums can mount up – they range from $30-$70 per month for every $100,000 borrowed.

50 years ago, in 1970, the average house price in a London suburb cost about £5,000 ($7,000) and the average annual salary was about £1,000 ($1,390) a year. The interest rate was 7%. To buy that house would have taken 281.25 ounces of gold at the price of £16 ($22) an ounce. By 1990 the same house would have cost some £87,000 ($120,700) and needed around 395 ounces of gold, at around £220 ($305)/oz. Clearly gold did not keep up with house price inflation between 1970 and 1990.

By 2010, the average house price in a London suburb was £235,000 ($326,000), almost 5,000% higher than in 1970, while the average salary had risen to around £26,000 ($36,000), a rise just half that of house prices – and the gold price fluctuated around £800 ($1,110)/oz. So the same house which took 281.25 ounces of gold in 1970 would have needed almost 294 ounces in 2010. By May this year the average house price in London was almost £498,000 ($691,000) – about the same as around 382 ounces of gold. So in the decade of 2010-20 the London suburb house price more than doubled in fiat money terms; but in gold terms the cost rose by less than 30%.

 

Like many other assets, timing is everything – prices, including that of gold, go up and down. And no-one knows how house prices are going to perform relative to the gold price over the next few months or years.

And a further factor to throw into the mix is our old friend, a black swan event, something unexpected which might jolt all markets. On that front, the next chart is interesting, as it suggests that in black swan events gold tends to do better than other investments.

My view is that one can never tell when it’s a good time to buy gold; its price is difficult to predict. But I don’t intend to stand idly by and watch the value of my savings dribble away. Buying gold, saving in gold, spending gold-as-money is my personal philosophy, which is why we say ‘Gold is security. Glint its key’.

Till next time,

Jason

Around the Campfire: Milan’s example

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I’ve been in Milan for a few days, flying with British Airways, to talk to potential investors in Glint. Traveling anywhere these days is a bit risky – one never knows whether an abrupt rule change will be introduced that would scupper all plans. Happily, the trip was super-easy, even though Italy is on the UK government’s ‘amber’ list, which means I now have to ‘quarantine’ for five days.

The flight to Milan was packed, with everyone masked-up. It was very sad at Heathrow to see lines of planes queued up on the tarmac; the aviation industry is going through very tough times.

I have been ‘double-jabbed’ but like everyone I still found it necessary to take COVID tests before I could step onto the aircraft. It seems crazy to be forced to shell out around £350 (almost $500) to have these tests after being vaccinated to the max, and especially when mask-wearing is mandatory just about everywhere. Who is profiting from this extra ‘tax’ on travel?

In between my meetings I managed to see the Duomo Di Milano, Milan’s Cathedral, construction of which started in 1386. The cathedral has literally stood the test of time – like gold. Wars, civil conflicts, fascism, 66 different governments (and that’s only since 1946) – the cathedral has impassively, monumentally, stood there, a mute observer of humanity’s foibles and frailties.

For me, gold is the monetary equivalent of the Duomo. Always there, through thick and thin, through successive waves of different monetary systems. Cryptocurrencies are just the latest in a long line of substitute-money creations – and they might not have long, given the steady move towards Central Bank Digital Currencies and government determination to exert more authority over private enterprise. People have always resisted the debasement of ‘legal tender’: gold, indestructible, widely held, has always been there and always will be there.

All the best

Jason

Around the Campfire: Summer deferred

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“One can never predict the future with perfect confidence”, the UK government’s Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove told the BBC today. He wasn’t interviewing for a job as a financial services’ compliance officer but instead seeking to justify why the government has just announced a postponement of the lifting of all remaining anti-Covid lockdown measures in England, from 21st June to 19th July.

The changing regulations leave many people confused about what is or is not ‘permitted’. I can testify that many more people are out and about than this time last year; trains seem to be full, the London Underground is full, road traffic seems back to ‘normal’. Mask-wearing is ubiquitous.

I’m full of admiration for those who are still planning to travel abroad in the next month – not because they are risking infection but because they might find themselves scrambling for vastly inflated prices to get on a plane home before they are required to ‘quarantine’.

Around 75,000 Brits were in Portugal – the only mainstream destination they could travel to without quarantining on their return – when at the start of June the government took the country off the ‘green’ list, the list of countries to which we can travel without quarantining, a kind of domestic lockdown, on your return. According to the consumer protection body Which less than 1% of travel insurance policies give people full comprehensive cover for COVID-related disruption. People who rushed to Faro or Lisbon airports to buy a pre-quarantine ticket back to Blighty found they had to pay several times what the pre-panic tickets cost.

Such is the quixotic nature of this virus and the government’s rule-making that I don’t think it’s worth the risk.

I had intended to take the family away for some much needed post-Crowdfunding R&R but I am now putting it back until all the mess has sorted itself out. Vacations are about relaxation after all.

But when I do eventually hit foreign beaches I know that one risk – exchange rates’ rip-offs – is just a bad nightmare, thanks to my Glint account. Glint gives you the freedom to use gold as money. But it also gives you the freedom to spend gold (or Dollars, Pounds or Euros) around the world. We’re also up to 6 times cheaper than banks, and there are no hidden or disguised fees. You can use Glint to pay for products and services in shops, restaurants and online, anywhere in the world, at the best available wholesale market rates (no mark-ups here) and with only a small 0.5% transaction fee. You no longer have to worry about the risk of losing significant sums of money from shifts in exchange rates. If you need some extra cash when traveling abroad then you can withdraw up to £300 (or $300) per day from ATMs that accept Mastercard®, with only a small fee of £1.50 / $1.50 / €1.50 per withdrawal from Glint, which just covers our costs.

So, if you do decide to travel, you can minimise one risk, unfair charges – take and use your Glint App and card.

Happy travel planning!

Jason Cozens

Around the Campfire: Bedtime Reading

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The annual In Gold We Trust Incrementum report, the latest of which has just been published, is always essential reading, even at 346 pages. Better still – it’s free! It doesn’t make for comfortable reading, however; one of its concluding remarks states “in our opinion, the financial and monetary system is now in a state of permanent stress, just short of burnout”.

But for anyone who wants to be forewarned and forearmed, it’s a must-read. I’ve made some time this week – in between fielding questions for our now 80% funded, crowdfunding campaign, with Seedrs in the UK and Republic in the US – to sample this compelling report, which goes far beyond gold.

This year’s issue, by Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark J. Valek, is no exception – not least because (unlike so many gold commentators) it sticks its neck out and makes a price forecast – the “conservative baseline scenario” gives a price target of $4,800, without “any extraordinary inflationary tendencies”, by the “end of the decade”. Which, if it happened, would be a rise of around 140% from today, or a gain of more than 15% a year. “If the decade was plagued by stronger inflation, a price of $8,900 could be expected by the end of the decade…the risk of inflation is growing visibly”, says the report.

The report reminds us that this year is the 50th anniversary (the ‘golden wedding’) of President Richard Nixon’s decision finally to sever the link of the US Dollar from gold, meaning the greenback was no longer convertible into bullion. The Dollar became a free-floating currency, measurable only by comparing it to other currencies. But only in December 1974, when President Gerald Ford signed new legislation, could Americans freely buy and trade gold, for the first time in more than 40 years.

The gold price exploded by 385% between the end of 1974 and 1980; gold has had in the past 50 years a compound annual growth rate of some 8%.

Since 1971, US government spending has positively exploded, as successive governments have been able to create fiat currency without being limited to how much gold sat in the national coffers. The US national debt is now more than $28 trillion and the national budget deficit greater than $3 trillion. The US now has a debt-based monetary system. As the report says, “central banks can create money without any restrictions and are increasingly making use of this privilege… Ultimately, the public’s trust in unbacked currencies stands or falls on whether central banks do not abuse this money-creation privilege”.

The report argues that “a profound change is taking place before all our eyes, a monetary climate change”. It asserts that “global fiat money is the convention of today. Gold backing is even forbidden in the Articles of Agreement subscribed to by all members of the International Monetary Fund”.

Trust in fiat currencies, including the Dollar, is fading, which is one reason why alternatives like cryptocurrencies and increasing, even with Millennials, gold, have become so popular. But governments know that control over money is the main source of their power.

China has banned cryptocurrency mining; one province has made it possible to ring a telephone hotline that people can use to inform on suspected mining units. In the US, financial authorities are preparing to take a more active role in regulating cryptocurrencies. Governments everywhere are planning to introduce – or in China’s case are introducing – their own Central Bank Digital Currencies, which ultimately aimed at driving private cryptocurrencies into the ground – and maintaining their control over the money we can use.

In Gold We Trust – Glint is putting flesh on those bones. With Glint you have gold-as-money at your fingertips. Gold of course may go down as well as up in value, but governments cannot spin more gold into existence – unlike Dollars, Pounds, Yen, or other fiat money. That gives me some comfort – it enables me to trust something.

Until next week,

Jason

Around the Campfire: Asset or money?

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This week I’ve been heavily involved in our crowdfunding, which I’m happy to report is going fantastically well, with 66% of our target met already, with three weeks still to run! So, thank you to everyone who has invested so far, and to those of you who haven’t yet please click the funding banner in the below article to come and join our movement to make money fairer and safer around the world, using gold as a real, everyday currency.

Whilst speaking to investors and carrying out my daily duties as CEO of an international FinTech, I’ve still found time to ponder the future for cryptocurrencies, a topic that seems to be on everyone’s lips, prompted partly by the recent precipitous collapse in the value/price of Bitcoin, as well as many other altcoins like Ether or Tez… don’t even get me started on Doge.

How can something that swings so wildly make a claim to be money? Bitcoin – the biggest and best-known cryptocurrency – was by Monday this week down by almost 50% from its high this year on 14 April, only one month ago! I would feel uncomfortable about trying to use a Bitcoin to buy anything (even if it was possible), with this kind of rapid rise and fall. The pizza I order could be twice as expensive – or 50% cheaper – by the time I pay for it.

Cryptocurrency supporters like to say that “crypto markets are volatile because they are free. Can you think of a more powerful narrative than that?” Noel Quinn, CEO of the global bank HSBC, obviously can. He said on Monday: “Given the volatility we are not into Bitcoin as an asset class, if our clients want to be there, then of course they are, but we are not promoting it as an asset class within our wealth management business”. He continued: “I view Bitcoin as more of an asset class than a payments vehicle, with very difficult questions about how to value it on the balance sheet of clients because it is so volatile”.

Mind you, HSBC may not be entirely neutral. HSBC has nailed its future to that of China; and last week China gave cryptocurrencies a good kicking, banning financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions. The more evidently neutral Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said in early May that cryptocurrencies “have no intrinsic value” and people who invest in them should be prepared to lose all their money.

In 2008, Bitcoin was nothing more than a PDF with an idea – that PDF traded at a spot price of zero. A rise to around $40,000 in 13 years is pretty impressive. But that very rise inhibits Bitcoin’s claims to be money, even though its fans reiterate that it’s the money of the future and will replace dollars, pounds, euros and yen. Some of the forecasts now around for Bitcoin’s future valuations are astronomical.

What might prevent Bitcoin from becoming money? Lots of things. For one, it’s just the leading cryptocurrency among thousands of others, all of them vying for attention. For another, producing Bitcoins (and other cryptocurrencies) is a “dirty business”, thanks to its massive consumption of energy, according to Professor Brian Lucey of Trinity College, Dublin. That’s why Elon Musk of Tesla fame did a recent U-turn and said Tesla would not accept Bitcoins in payment.

But perhaps the biggest reason why cryptocurrencies – undoubtedly a brilliant idea – will not become money is because the owners of our fiat currencies (the dollars, pounds, etc.) won’t let them. China will increasingly clamp down on cryptocurrency mining and use, and other jurisdictions are already signalling their determination not to cede control over money.

Lael Brainard, who sits on the US Federal Reserve board of governors, gave a speech this week in which she said a US Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) would preserve general access to safe central bank money; promote competition and diversity and lower transactions costs; improve efficiency; reduce cross-border frictions; complement currency and bank deposits; protect privacy and safeguard financial integrity; and increase financial inclusion. Brainard would not have spoken so openly and so emphatically without an OK from the highest level. The US, she said, “is stepping up its research and public engagement on a digital version of the US dollar”.

The widespread yearning for sound money, money that stands a good chance of maintaining its purchasing power, is completely understandable; in that belief, we are aligned with the cryptos, it’s just that I see gold – which can of course fall in value as well as rise – doing that rather better in the long term, than any cryptocurrency.

Until next week,

Jason

Crowdfunding is now live!

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We’re all delighted that our crowdfunding round is now available in both the UK & US – we’ve got off to a flying start already surpassing £1m in the UK & Europe through Seedrs just a few days after the public launch. US investors can visit Republic to join the Glint crowdfunding community.

A reminder of Glint’s mission: we are democratising and digitising real gold to be used as everyday money. Your support is vital in helping our growth as we continue to offer a real alternative to a failing monetary system.

Just in the last few days we’ve had several stark reminders of why a reform of the current financial system is so vital.

In the last week, we’ve seen inflation stats from China, the UK and the US – up 0.9%, 1.5% and 2.6% respectively. The UK will surpass the Bank of England’s 2% target and hit 2.5% later this year whilst in the US it could even hit 6%. This is staggering and has a frankly terrifying impact on the value of our cash and savings.

Last week, the FTSE 100 fell by around 2.5%, losing almost £50bn whilst the Dow Jones saw a 3% drop over 48 hours.

And the cryptocurrency market is collapsing around us. Elon Musk’s tweet suggesting that Tesla would exit the Bitcoin market sent prices plummeting. As prices stabilised and then began to recover, news from China that it was cracking down on crypto and tightening restrictions on financial institutions with services dealing with the digital currencies, sent crypto prices into freefall – the price of Bitcoin dropped a third in less than 24 hours. Some investors will have seen thousands wiped off their portfolios within a matter of minutes.

All the while, gold has been going under the radar. It’s seen its value rise by around 10% in just six weeks and after being maligned for months is suddenly one of the only assets performing well.

Of course, gold’s value can decline, but it has been a store of value for centuries and has proven its long-term reliability. In my view, the current climate makes gold once again the premier hedge against inflation, uncertainty and the erosion of our purchasing power.

Now is the perfect time to invest in gold and invest in Glint to be part of the future of money.

Jason Cozens