Price is not the only thing

2025 has been a standout year for gold, the Dollar price going up by more than 60%. Compare that to the S&P 500 index, which is on track to end at least 15% up from where it was at the start of 2025. The tech sector has been the talk of this year but only a handful of tech stocks have doubled in price; overall the sector has gone up by around 25%. Gold has done well, but silver even better - more than doubling.

Gold analysts are now spiritedly crunching numbers or sucking their thumbs to come up with forecasts for 2026. Paying attention to what they say makes as much sense as pouring water into a bucket riddled with holes.

Seasoned analysts gave their forecasts for 2025 to the London Market Bullion Association (LBMA) in January this year. Then they collectively expected the gold price in 2025 to average $2,735.33. As of 17 December the average gold price for 2025 was more than $660 higher.

LBMA gold price forecasts for 2025

The most bearish LBMA forecast, from someone with more than 30 years as an analyst, was almost $900/oz lower than the actual average. Of course with two weeks to go before this year ends gold might tank. But that seems very unlikely.

Your own gold standard

A rise of this kind is not to be sneered at. But it doesn't match that seen in the 1970s, thanks to President Richard Nixon. He ended the gold standard in 1971.

Once the official link between the Dollar and gold was ended by Nixon, gold shot up from its fixed price of $35/oz to $850/oz in January 1980.

The 1970s were a time when gold truly shone. That decade was marked by high inflation, Opec (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) staged an oil embargo in 1973 against all countries that supported Israel, the Iranian revolution started in 1978, and the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979.

That gold spike didn't last. Central banks, some of the biggest holders of gold, started selling portions of their gold reserves and gold miners started selling gold in forward markets. Journalists looking for an easy way of trashing gold remembered John Maynard Keynes' remark that a gold standard was a "barbarous relic". Gold's price fell to $251.70/oz in August 1999.

The Great Financial Crash of 2008 threw Keynes' skepticism into the gutter. As banks collapsed and share prices were trashed gold once more appealed. It renewed its price climb, rising above $1,000/oz toward the end of February 2009.

While 50 years ago investors were advised to hold around 5% of their assets in gold, it's become commonplace today for many advisers to suggest 15-20%. Some put it even higher.

Central banks play a vital role in the return to gold's price climb - in 2024 they bought more than 1,000 tonnes, for the third consecutive year - but private buyers conventionally buy almost three times central bank demand.

It's almost as if private buyers are determined not to rely on fiat currencies but want to create for themselves their own gold standard, their own defense against unexpected threats.

2026 will be full of surprises

Given that even years of experience in the gold world don't guarantee accurate price forecasts this article makes no specific price projection.

Rather it peers into the gloom to try to assess what might happen. Trying to gauge the trend seems a more dependable tactic.

In hat respect 2026 is shaping up to intense similarity with 1976. 1976 saw the start of a major bull run.

The political leadership of the US is unlikely to change. The forcefulness of President Trump won't diminish, and his indifference to the massive US national debt will continue. The Ukraine war may become less bloody but will not end; the same is true in the Israel/Palestinian conflict. Other conflicts - such as Washington's spat with Venezuela - may worsen. China's quiet expansionism will continue. The unity of the European Union will continue to decline. Economic growth in many of the last century's leading countries will be a persisting problem.

This might seem an excessively depressing analysis. Of course there are many reasons for optimism. Scientific progress will continue; more diseases will find cures; and technological advances are unstoppable.

But underlying all of our societies, the reason for that optimism, is the need for currency stability, for us to know that the purchasing power of what we use as money will remain the same. And that means gold, which thanks to Glint can these days actually be used as money. Use fiat currency, by all means. But if you want to know that your spending is based on stability, use gold.

This is 2025's last newsletter. The newsletter of 2026 kicks off on 9 January. We wish you and yours a wonderful holiday break, and may 2026 be bountiful for you all!

For UK clients: At Glint, we make every effort to demonstrate a balanced conversation between gold, silver, crypto and fiat currencies when it comes to purchasing power and, while we strongly believe that gold is the fairest and most reliable currency on the planet, we need to point out that it isn’t 100% risk free. While we have seen a steady increase over time, the value of gold can fall, which means that its purchasing power can also decline.

For US clients: Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint debt card is issued by Sutton Bank, member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is

·        Not insured by the FDIC.

·        Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.

·        Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.